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CFL West: Burris powers through errors in win over Riders

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07/27/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While a home win by the Calgary Stampeders against the Saskatchewan Roughriders isn't completely surprising, that the win came by 20 points is not something many would have expected. Calgary put on a great second half show against what was the league's only undefeated team, and now sit first overall in the west. The Stamps were the only west team to win in week four, however, as Edmonton and BC joined Saskatchewan in the loss column.

CALGARY STAMPDERS

Calgary quarterback Henry Burris entered week four looking to prove himself against the league's best team, and the result was a division prepared to listen.

After giving up four interceptions in a three-point loss to Toronto last week, Burris overcame two first-half picks and tossed four touchdowns in a 40-20 win against the Roughriders.

It certainly wasn't a perfect game. Both of Burris's interceptions came in the Saskatchewan end zone, taking away two plays that should have resulted in points rather than turnovers.

The veteran QB made up for it with three TD passes in the second half, orchestrating a dynamic offensive attack that had the Riders defense gasping for air.

Receiver Romby Bryant was Burris's favorite target, hauling in two touchdown passes and accumulating 116 yards.

As long as Burris can control his sloppy play, as he did in the second half against Saskatchewan, the Stamps can challenge the Riders for first in the west.

Offensive key to next game: Calgary plays again at home, only this time against the unpredictable Winnipeg Blue Bombers. In week four, the Bombers pounced on Edmonton's mistakes and held the Albertan team in check. Winnipeg is looking to sweep the province, but as long as Burris can limit his interceptions, the Stampeders are in good enough shape.

Defensive key to the game: With all the turmoil at quarterback for the Bombers, one would think that holding the offense in check would be a piece of cake. On the contrary, as Steve Jyles performed admirably starting for the injured Buck Pierce, particularly in his ability to mix a solid running game with his passing. Though Jyles had a successful week four, Calgary can slow the momentum if it can halt Jyles from making first downs on the ground.

Look ahead: The Stampeders have an opportunity to surge ahead in the standings if they take advantage of a relatively soft schedule coming up. A home date at Winnipeg is followed by the troubled offense of the BC Lions and then a home game against rival Edmonton Eskimos. All three have losing records and are prime for Burris and the Stamps to add to their woes.

EDMONTON ESKIMOS

Nearly every team has shown at least some level of competency this season - all except for the Eskimos, who are now 0-4 for the first time since 1965.

Such a start points to a possible change in management, or even some roster moves; whatever it is, the Esks have to find out what to do fast as they are fading rather quickly.

Week four's game saw Edmonton try three different quarterbacks, though Jared Zabransky attempted just one pass. Starter Ricky Ray continues to struggle to find his game, tossing two interceptions to go along with two TD's.

On the defensive side of the ball the Eskimos haven't fared much better. While there have been a sample of individuals who have performed decently enough, there needs to be more of a team effort to get over the hump.

Offensive key to next game: Consistency is the ticket for Edmonton in their next game against BC, and a date with the Lions may be just what they need to put in four solid quarters. Given the uncertainty at QB, Arkee Whitlock may be the Eskimos' key man against a Lions team that has allowed some big numbers against the rush.

Defensive key to the game: The Lions offense was better last week, but not the best it could be. If Travis Lulay starts again for BC, Edmonton needs to exploit the newcomer. Lulay did have a decent game for the Lions, though he failed to toss a touchdown pass. Get to Lulay and the Eskimos can give their offense a chance to score some points.

Look ahead: After BC comes a challenge from the year's major story, the resurgence of the Toronto Argonauts. How good are they? Their record indicates they're a team to watch out for, but playing at home is a huge advantage for the Eskimos in this one. Perfect time to pick up that first win, as it appears unlikely they would get it visiting Calgary in Week 6.

BC LIONS

Travis Lulay led the Lions close to victory in Toronto, but a heartbreaking interception returned for a touchdown destroyed what could have been a decent, if not spectacular win for the BC squad.

Though he threw two picks, Lulay did fairly well moving the ball up the field. A bigger concern for the Lions is the play of newly-acquired Jamal Robertson.

Robertson had two touchdowns, but posted just 54 yards and a fumble in a match advertised as a head-to-head battle between Robertson and his replacement at running back, Cory Boyd. The rookie won round one, and if the Lions want to get their offense going, they need Robertson to step it up.

Offensive key to next game: What's the best way to cure a struggling offense? A matchup against the league's worst team, the Edmonton Eskimos. Edmonton allowed 47 points last week and looked lost defending the Bombers. The Esks had some major problems defending the ball on the ground, and so it's time for Robertson to be the player he's capable of being and attack that weakness.

Defensive key to the game: Edmonton will do its best not to go 0-5, and BC needs to be prepared for that desire to break the ice. Ricky Ray will desire to bounce back after having to sit back and watch his teammate, Jason Maas, take a few snaps at QB in an attempt to kick-start the offense.

Look ahead: The Lions' one win grants them a spot higher than Edmonton, but that's about it. Following their tilt against Edmonton the Lions face the top two teams in the west over the next two weeks. BC can climb their way up quickly if they can pick up some wins against their division rivals.

SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS

The season was moving along so smoothly for Saskatchewan's Darian Durant, who appeared to have things well under control at the pivot.

Things did not look that way in week four, however, as Durant threw three interceptions and the defense followed suit by granting too much space downfield for Burris to look at.

Even kicker Luca Congi had trouble getting it going, hitting just one of his three field goal attempts in the game.

Special teams continue to be amongst the Riders' weakness this season as the Stampeders' Deon Murphy averaged over 31 yards per kick return - far too high a number and one that allowed Calgary to maintain better field position.

Offensive key to the next game: The Hamilton Tiger-Cats did a good job of preventing Anthony Calvillo from marching all the way down the field -the problem was Damon Duval hit a team-record seven field goals, points that add up. Riders kicker Luca Congi will need to be more accurate in order for Saskatchewan to get going offensively, while Durant will need to forget about his last performance and focus solely on leading his team over a struggling Hamilton side.

Defensive key to the game: The Ti-Cats were sloppy rushing with the ball against Montreal last week. Saskatchewan can use that if the defensive line bullies down low bother them the way Montreal did, forcing fumbles and turnovers.

Look ahead: After their game against Hamilton, the Riders travel to Montreal in a rematch of the thrilling season opener. The chances of another high-scoring game is highly unlikely as defenses have since tightened up, but if both teams rediscover their offense, perhaps fireworks are still in order.


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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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